Saturday, December 13, 2008

Bad bluffs and massive overbets

I just finished a session now where I caught a couple of bad bluffs. I'm always a bit worried when I see someone overbet jam the flop, which happened twice at the same time. One one table I had pocket jacks and the other aces. On the table where I had jacks, I raised and the guy 3-bet me from the blinds and I called, the flop came down 2-4-9 rainbow and the guy overbet shoved for around 45bb and I ended up calling him, and he showed AJ. He was the type of player who wouldn't 3-bet 99s, so I really wasn't worried about a set, and normally bad players will slow down with Aces or Kings, so the only hand I was worried about was QQ, which I'm still not sure he's jam with like that. I figured AK type hands and I had to call.

On the other hand I held Aces and I 3-bet the MP from the CO. He flat called and the flop came Jack high with three diamonds and he shoved for 80bb and I folded after thinking about it for awhile. I didn't have any real reads on the player, but he'd started the hand with 100bb, so automatically I figured he wasn't horrible. I've seen a lot of good players shove when they hit big hands hoping it looks like a bluff, and I thought that this might be the case. If I'd had the A of diamonds I would have called, but without it he might have bluffed me off with something like KKs, but I am almost positive he had at least one diamond and I felt I had to take the route of less variance there, because there were enough hands I was behind (JJ, and any flush), whereas in the other hand I felt like I was ahead of pretty much his entire range, even though the scenarios were pretty much the same.

Both these hands were literally happening at the same time and I thought it was pretty funny, especially considering I ended up folding the aces and calling with the Jacks. I think it might be nitty to be folding aces in that spot, but I'm not overly disappointed that I did, and while it's probably –EV, I don't think it's enough so that I really cost myself. And as I said, if I had the Ace of diamonds it would've been a snap call, as it would have taken a lot of hands that beat me out of his range (AK, AQdd).

I've recently noticed a pattern with people who limp, re-shove pre-flop. They often do it from air, unless it's from UTG. It's a popular move UTG with AA or KK, but today I caught someone doing it with Q10 after I isolated against him with AQ, and pretty much every time someone limp/shoves from MP on I figure they're on a pure bluff after getting sick of me isolating against them so much. I isolate with enough weak hands that I can't always call (K10 and worse), but I think after today I'm really going to widen my range for calling these guys. A similar hand happened a couple of days ago where I had 10s and after calling his shove he showed down 10-4o.

In other news I'm about to clear my bonus and I'm going to have to decide whether or not I want to stay on GNUF to clear the rest of my bonus there (which I'm a quarter of the way through), or if I should just switch to Ladbrokes. I'm going to stay on GNUF for the weekend though and then I have exams on Monday and Tuesday nights, so I'm going to try and make my mind up by Sunday to ensure if I do take my money out, I can have it onto Ladbrokes by Wednesday, which is the next day I'll really get to play.