The start of a career?

Okay so I think I'm actually going to do what the title of my blog relates to - or at least try to anyway. That's right, I'm honestly thinking about playing poker for a living. I know, I know, it'll end in failure right?

Well I don't think it will or else I wouldn't be wanting to try. For the past few months I've been playing whenever I get the chance, and I've managed to log around 40,000 hands at the .05/.10 cent ring games on PokerStars, playing 2 tables at first, and now up to 6 at a time. Over those 40k hands I've managed to win at a rate of about 9 big blinds per 100 hands, which would translate to ninety cents per one hundred hands played. Now I know that sounds like nothing much, but if you do the math on it, it's not that bad. Playing 6 tables at a time, I get in around 450 hands/hour, which means I'm making about $4/hour. 

Okay, that does sound pretty shitty afterall. I mean, it's less than half of the minimum wage here in Quebec. Thing is, since I started my game has improved substantially to the point where I'm winning at a better rate than that, and I plan on moving up in the stakes.

Well, I have moved up in the stakes. I'm playing .10/.25 cent now, and I'm attempting to clear a bonus on a site that I just transfered all my funds to. For the next month - which will result in a lot less play time because of final exams and all that shit - I figure I can boost my bankroll enough to get me up to .25/.50 cent stakes by January. Now I'm going to recalculate what I think my possible winnings are, but first I'm going to knock things down a little. I'm winning at 9bb/100h right now, but I figure at a higher stake, the players should be better (in the mirco stakes, which I'll still be in, they'll still suck though) so lets calculate at 6bb/100h just to be safe. So 6x.5 = $3/100h. 3x4.5 = 13.5. All of a sudden it doesn't sound so bad, making $13.5 and hour. It's not great, I'll give you that, but we're not done yet.

The next thing to look at is rakeback. I'm planning on signing up for a site once I'm ready to move to .25/.50 that will be paying me rakeback, which should translate into (according to various rakeback calculators) that I'd be getting an extra $900 or so a month (one said $2000, but I think that's a bit rediculous) if I were playing 4 tables, 30 hours a week. I plan on doing 6 tables for 30-40 hours a week, but again I like to under estimate. So adding all that up together, I figure I should be able to make $14/hour (okay, I'm rounding up for the first time) at 30 hours a week. That's $420 a week, or roughly $1700 a month. Then add $900, that should bring me to $2600 a month, or roughly $31 000 a year. 

Now on top of that, that's american dollars and I'm in Canada, so I get a bonus 20% increase from that, but I'm not going to include that at the moment. And while 30k a year is okay, I'd obviously want to move up from there. The thing is I want to start playing .25/.50 with a bank roll of about 25 buy-ins, which would equal $1250 (or doubly my current role). I'd be willing to move up in stakes (to .50/1.00) when my roll is at 25 buy-ins again, or $2500. 

My upcoming expenses, on a monthly basis, are going to be around $1000ish. Lets say $1500 to be on the safe side again. So without rakeback I should be able to save $200 a month. With rakeback, $1100 a month. If any of this works out I should be able to be playing .50/1.00 within a month or two months and after that I figure everything should be gravy.

Now I understand a lot of this is pure speculation, and I agree that it is. But there is math behind all this, and unless I hit a major downswing (which does happen... I've already felt it a couple times), and as long as I use good bankroll management I really believe I can make this work. Is it a bit dangerous to want to pit my future on a game like poker? Probably very much so. But I also believe that I can make it work, and it's about the only thing I've been able to think of when it comes to getting a job. I don't want to work in a warehouse like I've been doing for the past 10 years, I don't want to go into some random job that I'll probably quit pretty fast.

I'd like to find something stable and garanteed, but at the same time I truely believe that if I want to make money, I'm going to have to take a chance. Sure, I have a university degree, but it's only worth so much considering I don't want to go into what I studied, and I think if I really commit myself to this I can make more money at this than just about anything else in the long run. I know that there will be rough patches and I already have a good idea of how to prevent that from really affecting me (hopefully I'm right).

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm not going into this blind. I've done my research and I know others who've done the same thing I'm looking at doing and they've made it work. It's not some random idea, it's something that can be done, specially at the stakes I plan on playing. I'm not about to go in and start playing above my head in a game that could make me go broke. I want to work my way up slowly, putting more money into savings than into poker. I want to make a living off this, and making a living isn't something that should involve a lot of risks. I also have no grand dreams of playing for pots that are worth 300k like I've watched some other pros do online. If I get there, I'll give myself a pat on the back. I don't plan on getting there, I plan on making a decent, six figure salary in the next 5 years. 

I also think the best thing about all this is the timing. I'm not living in an environment where if I miss a bill payment I'm up the shitter, and I have a job that I can fall back onto any time if need be. I guess the worst part about this is, I know my parents won't be happy (even though I don't know how vocal they'll be about it). My dad really won't be. But I also know that if I can show them it's working they'll support me, even if they won't really believe it's viable for at least the first year.

Anyway, this has been a really long and pretty boring post, but what I plan on doing is updating this on a very regular basis from now on, explaining where I'm at and seeing if things are working and if so, how good/bad things are going. I want to try and post at least weekly with updates, and hopefully it'll be interesting. I'm also planning on using it to for myself, to see how I've changed as a player as I (hopefully) continue playing for a long time to come.

I like Poker

So after doing really well at the poker table the past few days, I just capped it all off with my first big win of the year. I've been playing mostly 6 person ring games recently, or in other words playing at a 6 person table where the blinds never go up and you play with straight cash. After increasing my bankroll by about 25% in two days I decided to playing in a few tournies.

The first tournament was a $5 buy in no limit game with a field of about 250 and a pretty good prize pool (first place was about $500). The first hand I was dealt 8-9 of diamonds. I was the dealer, and so the last to act. A few people called the big blind of 30 (we started with 1500 in chips) and I figured I might as well see a cheap flop, seeing as I had the best position at the table and a hand that could hit the flop pretty hard. So of course the big blind then raises is to 90 and one other guy calls. I normally would fold here, 9-8 suited or unsuited isn't a great hand, but I had position on everyone (I would be the last to act for each round of betting) and so I figured that was a good enough reason to get involved. So the flop comes 8-9-3, with two of the cards being hearts. The big blind bets $250. I figure has one of two hands. A-9, or A-x of hearts. With everyone else quickly folding I see myself as a big favorite (about 4-1) and figure it'd be nice to double up on the first hand, so I re-raise to $700. He pushes all-in and at this point I'm sure he has a hand like A-K or A-Q of hearts. I called and he had just that, A-K of hearts... and of course the turn comes a heart, leaving me with a few outs (any of the remaining 8s or 9s would make me a full house) but of course the river comes another heart and I'm bounced after the first hand.

Looking back at it now, I'm not so sure how much I like my play. I was a big favorite after the flop, but with the hands I put him on, he did have a good amount of outs. If this was mid-tourny or later, I'd definitely play it like I did. Because it was the start though, I'm thinking that I should have only called his bet on the flop and seen what came next. I like to play small pots at the start of a tourny, not put my entire stack at risk. If this was a cash game I'd play it the same every time, but because of the circumstances I don't like how I played it. But I was out and there was nothing I could do about it.

After this happened I went back to a 6 person ring game and quickly made my $5 back when a Kamikazee sat down at the table. He came out shooting and I knew right off the bat he was agressive, but then some people started calling him down and he truely had shit most of the time. I wanted to get involved in some hands with this guy before everyone else took his money. It didn't look good though as he went broke twice before I played a hand with him, but each time he re-loaded his chips. Then I finally got into a hand with him. I had J-9 in the big blind. He put in a big raise and everyone else folded. Against a lot of other players I'd debate folding this, but against him I knew I could crush him if the right flop came down. K-K-9 hit and I smiled. Whenever he bet out to start, he always followed it up with a pot sized bet, so I checked it to him and he did just that. I of course, re-raised him and then he called me. I was a little scared that he could have trip kings, but I put him on something more like A-x or even something like Q-x J-x. He loved face cards. The turn was a garbage card and again I checked it to him, and then he checked too. At this point I knew he didn't have a King. The river was more garbage and I decided to take a chance and overbet the pot, moving all-in. Of course, he called me and to my pleasure he had 9-8. We both had two pair, but I had the better kicker. Now before I go on, I just want to let everyone know I'd never play this hand like that in normal circumstances. I don't mind bringing the J-9 in after a raise pre-flop with only 6 players at the table, and I would have definetly played it with the flop that came down, but if anyone played back at me I'd slow right down. Against someone like this though, I like them try to kill themself. When he slowed down I still figured he had a half-decent hand, or else he wouldn't have called my re-raise, so by going all-in I wasn't too scared. Normally in this case I wouldn't push. The only hand that would have called me pushing all-in would be a hand that beats me... but this guy was nuts. He left the table after that hand, sadly.

That was okay though because another tourny I wanted to take part in was just about to start. It was a $2 buy-in tourny, 125 people entered and first place was $67.50. What I didn't realize until it was too late was that it was a limit tourny, not no-limit. I don't mind limit, but it doesn't play the same as no-limit and I hadn't played in some time. I figured I'd just play a tight game though. One mistake I hear a lot about is no-limit players playing too many hands in limit, because it's always pretty cheap to play. Everything was going pretty well. I doubled my chips after about 20 minutes of play and was gaining confidence quickly. Then I didn't add another chip to my stack for about an hour. I'd lose, then win, then lose, then win. All small pots, and I stayed around the same stack for well into the game. My once dominate stack, although just as big, was now one of the short stacks. The blinds were eating away at me and I was pretty worried. There were about 40 people left at this point, with the top 20 getting paid.

One thing though, is I don't play tournements to make the money, I play to win them. I didn't want to keep this up and home I could climb to 20th. I needed to make a move and soon. I got pocket 7s as the dealer and with everyone else folding I raised. The big blind re-raised and I re-raised him, which pretty much put me in. To my called and showed me pocket Aces. I got lucky and caught a 7 on the turn though, and after doubling up I went on a bit of a run to get me into about 5th place as far as chip stacks go. I was confident I could win this now as we were down to about 25-30 people.

I kept getting more and more chips, and felt more and more confident about my chances. I really liked how I was playing. My timing was on and I was reading people really well. I couldn't have been happier. By the time we were down to five people, I had over half the chips in play.

Then I hit a wall as two more people were in the process of getting knocked out, bringing us down to 3 people, I lost over 40 000 chips (of my about 120 000). It didn't kill me, but I went from being the dominate force at the table to pretty much being tied with the three guys who were left. I was still playing good though, and I love playing a small table.

In the end, I won. I would tell you more about the hands that went down, but there were no really big hands. It was just slowly but surely chipping away at the others. The last hand I had A-5 of hearts and re-raised and I called. The flop came K-J-10 and he bet, putting him almost all-in. My hand was weak, but he was pretty much all-in so I re-raised and he showed me A-2 and I went to win with a pair of 5s that I hit on the turn.

Apart from when my 77s sucked out on the AAs, I played a great game and that move I made with the 7s was my turning point, and something I had to do. Even if I lost there I wouldn't be upset with my play. I was too low on chips to sit around waiting anymore. I never sucked out apart from that hand, and it was also the only one where I was all-in. And in the end I got over $65 on a $2 investment. Not too shabby, I must say. I really hope I can keep playing the way I am right now, I don't really think I've ever been on top of my game like this before.